How the US Israel war against Iran may hit Kenya’s redoubt

Written by Otiato Guguyu

The war of the world has broken in Iran and Kenya, a forward base in the chain of United States of America military bases is about to become a frontline in the Gulf theater.

America is projecting its power over Iran using heavy bombardment launched from aircraft carriers and serviced in military bases across the Gulf, including the Navy’s Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, the massive Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, and Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE.

As Iran retaliates by targeting these bases, America may increasingly rely on its bases across East Africa and the Fortress of Diego Garcia.

In Mauritius, America has already deployed F-16 fighter jets to Diego Garcia specifically to defend the island “Unsinkable Aircraft Carrier” from potential attack. However, the British have weakened the Americans by handing back the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, which brings this military base into potential contention.

In Kenya, US launched a $70 million Manda Bay military base expansion that would extend the runway to accommodate larger American military aircraft.

Kenya has been a key US military ally and was spared travel restrictions by President Donald Trump, even after former US president Joe Biden revealed plans in 2024 to designate it as the first major non-NATO ally in sub-Saharan Africa.

This makes Kenya a legitimate target in the Gulf theatre as Iran retaliates with options including hitting American bases, attempting to block the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil passes, triggering financial crises.

A long war is likely to lead to capital flight, labor disruption, a massive refugee crisis, surging oil prices, shipping insurance costs and the rise of the “Zionist Israeli hegemony”. Israel is fighting alongside America with ambitions to redefine global supply chains and establish dominance through territorial expansions and a future Ben Gurion Canal that splits right through the Gaza strip.

While a direct, state-on-state missile barrage, like the ones Iran has launched at Israel and its Gulf neighbours, is highly unlikely due to the distance and the nature of the conflict, Kenya risks getting attacked through asymmetrical warfare from Yemen and Somalia.

Kenya is already in the cross hairs of the Houthi having been used by the European Union to drop seized weapons and traffickers in the East African nation for prosecution as part of the strategic move against Yemen’s rebels who targeted Israeli ships passing through the Red Sea in retaliation with the war on Gaza.

Kenya has been preparing for the hot war, including a rise in terrorist and drone attacks, with the Kenya Defense Forces acquiring Israeli technology SPYDER (Surface-to-air PYthon and DERby) air defense system, procured from Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, designed to counter aircraft, helicopters, UAVs (drones), and precision-guided munitions.

Among the population, support for America is lukewarm and may soon be tested when the bombs start dropping.

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