Oral East Africa>Protest scare investors from treasuries At the hut of the story

data, analysis, tips, politics and gossip

— Weeks of protests scare domestic debt markets.

— Kenya looks to Ghana, was avoiding default worth it?

— Fill granaries ahead of la nina season of drought and inflation.

Two weeks?

President William Ruto was surprised by the media when they told him the #RejectFinanceBill2024 protests are entering their third week.

Three weeks of stalled economic activity due to protests, political crisis and property damage mean the economy has stalled and with the rejection of the Finance Bill is likely to slide backwards.

In these few weeks of protests, banks have began treating Kenyan debt with suspicion denying the government even three month Fuliza even though the country’s interest rates are approaching 20 percent.

Kenya has incidentally sent police to Haiti and deployed the Kenya Defense Forces, its military, in Nairobi.

The demand for Treasury bills (T-bills) by investors has dried up, last week's T-bill auction, which aimed to raise Kes24 billion, only realised Kes7.6 billion

Fuliza for three months, aka 91-day 1 T-bill is costing the government 15.9771 percent while the six months and yearly Fuliza is going for 16.7636 and 16.7911 percent, respectively.

Looking to Ghana

This is a bad signal for local banks, pension funds and insurance that Kenya is moving towards a default especially with doubts rising on its IMF programme.

Kenya 's President Ruto swore not to go the 'Ghana way' of defaulting, choosing instead to tax everything that moves to meet the country's unsustainable debt. Ghana which took the bullet by the horn and defaulted in 2022 and has been on a road to recovery.

The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) executive board approved the second review of Ghana's I loan programme on Friday, allowing for the immediate disbursement of around $360 million, the Fund said.

The oil, gold and cocoa producer finalised a deal with its official creditor committee, a $3 billion rescue loan from the IMF. The Fund said Ghana’s strategy aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability and reducing debt vulnerabilities is paying off, with clear signs of stabilisation emerging.

La Nina?

Even as the state is battling a political and economic crisis, drought may just be around the corner. And drought means hunger, inflation, duty free imports of food and even greater social unrest.

Toward end of this year when Kenya is predicted to experience La Ninia conditions. La Nina's impact around the world varies widely by geographic location.

For Kenya, it causes dry conditions during the short rains season from October. It was largely blamed for the multi-year drought that hit Kenya between 2020 to 2023.

According to, Igad Regional Focus of the Global Report on Food Crises 2023 over 55 million people facing acute hunger and requiring urgent assistance, a new report shows.