Ruto Raila partnership realigning ODM from brains to brawns

Written by Ochieng K’Osawa

The new political alliance between President William Ruto and opposition leader Raila Odinga has seen the erstwhile politician turn his back on the intellectuals who have validated his status and embraced more brutish elements of his party.

The shift is seen in politicians like George Aladawa, a student of Bachelor of Business Administration, at Kenya Methodist University since 2014 making more pronouncements for the party than stalwarts like Prof. Anyang Nyongo and James Orengo.

Governors James Orengo and Anyang’ Nyong’o, have been the two powerful political figures in the Nyanza region who have been at the forefront of Odinga’s political machinery, providing an intellectual stance for the party that fashioned itself as a liberation movement.

Violence and reason

However, with this unexpected partnership of Ruto-Raila, whose rule has been marred by violence, kidnappings, and murder of protestors, the ODM intellectuals have been put in a pickle struggling to find any philosophical backing for the partnership largely seen as transactional.

In the vacuum of these two powerful figures new more brutish forces are coalescing around Raila and the state power he now wields, which looks to shape the future of the Orange Movement.

James Orengo, a seasoned politician and current Siaya Governor, has long been an unwavering ally of Raila Odinga having moved into the fold after terribly losing to Kibaki in the 2002 presidential polls. Since then, Orengo has been an integral figure in Odinga’s efforts to mobilize Nyanza in pushing for reforms and equal representation.

Similarly, Anyang’ Nyong’o, second-term Governor of Kisumu County, has been another staunch ally, having previously served as ODM Secretary General and a loyal supporter of Raila and his vision for Kenya’s future.

Party intellectuals

Together, Orengo and Nyong’o have helped solidify Raila’s influence in Nyanza, ensuring that his political grip on the region remains unchallenged. But with the sudden ‘bromance’ and as unofficial as it may appear, the Ruto-Raila alliance could pose a potential threat and test their unwavering support in ways they hadn’t anticipated.

The alliance, while seen as a historic move towards national unity, brings with it a radical shift in Kenya’s political power structures.

For Orengo and Nyong’o, this new political reality raises urgent questions; How will their positions be affected by the new alliance between Raila and Ruto? And, perhaps more importantly, how will their political base, which has long identified with Raila’s leadership, react to this unprecedented move?

The Ruto schism

Orengo and Nyong’o’s political careers have been built on their strong allegiance to Raila Odinga. But with the growing alliance between Ruto and Raila which they have openly opposed with their varied opinions as recently witnessed during the burial of Prof Bathwel Ogot in Gem, their control over Nyanza politics could begin to slip.

Local political figures and grassroots supporters in the region who have long viewed Raila as a symbol of resistance to the establishment may see his alliance with Ruto as a betrayal to their course. For Orengo and Nyong’o, this could mean a loss of political capital in their respective counties.

The challenge they face is not just in convincing their voters to maintain loyalty in light of the new political landscape, but also in navigating the growing factions within their own political spheres.

At the same time, local politicians who have previously been aligned with Raila may see the Ruto-Raila alliance as an opportunity to jump ship and align themselves with the government. These opportunistic figures may attempt to position themselves as the new power brokers in the region, challenging the dominance of Orengo and Nyong’o.

Splitting the yam

The Ruto-Raila alliance could offer the Nyanza region significant economic opportunities that are likely to bring with it a flood of government projects aimed at addressing the region’s infrastructural deficits through the ‘bottom-up’ economic agenda that prioritizes marginalized areas.

Traditionally Raila has involved Orengo and Nyong’o in any pact with successive governments, in the new dispensation that is building around Ruto and Raila, new and energetic faces like Homabay Governor Gladys Wanga and Suna East MP Junet Mohammed seem to be edging out the old guards.

The question of whether local political figures like Orengo and Nyong’o can maintain their borrowed influence alongside playing opposition outfit within the new found love between Ruto and Raila will equally determine their future political survival.

Should Ruto’s influence in Nyanza grow, it may pave the way for political figures loyal to him to take over key positions.

Re-alignment

Orengo and Nyong’o could find themselves in direct competition with these new power players, who may be more aligned with Ruto’s government and who could benefit from the political and economic backing of the state.

Moreover, the political power of Orengo and Nyong’o is deeply tied to Raila’s ability to mobilize the masses in their favor, but in an event Raila Odinga sticks his national stature in assisting the president to build cohesion across the county then Orengo and Nyong’o could find themselves struggling to hold together their political base for any future elective positions.

For these loyalists, the coming months will be critical in determining whether they can maintain their influence or whether a new political era will dawn in Nyanza, one in which their roles are diminished, and the power dynamics shift in favor of new players aligned with the Ruto-Raila alliance.

This eventuality will impact more on James Orengo who is facing a stiff reelection from formidable candidates like Eng Nicholas Gumbo.