Oral East Africa>Part 1: The motorcycle boom spluttering blood At the hut of the story

Written by Otiato Guguyu

In 2008 President Mwai Kibaki lifted taxes on boda boda imports by zero rating motorcycles of up to 250 ccs, creating a multibillion market that would open up rural villages to new economies and prosperity.

This prosperity would grow Kenya’s transport sector exponentially. However, vulnerable to economic shocks, it is plunging into violent crime and vigilante revenge killings that could run amock.

The growth of the motorcycle industry has been rapid and the business that has sprouted around it has been immense.

The motorcycle industry is lucrative, generating an estimated Sh1 billion annually and employing about 1 million Kenyans and has fundamentally altered Kenya’s economy.

When Kenya rebased its economy 2021 it found that the transport sector’s contribution to total GDP had been underestimated by 2.8 points and was actually 10.8 per cent. Part of this was the evolution of boda bodas, in branded reflector jackets bursting out in last mile logistics and riding service industry.

*Group of Boda boda riders waiting for clients in Narok town*

At the height of Covid 19 pandemic, the boda boda were essential services, and the back bone of the logistics that allowed hotels to evolve into online, order in business.

They are in vogue and continue to show even further potential as the central node for the green energy and future cities.

This exponential growth has been fueled by a lucrative asset finance business that turbocharged its penetration into the low end of the market.

For years, many riders who lacked collateral could not get bank loans to buy their own motorcycles and scores turned to a rent model. They would rent a bodaboda from owners for between Kes400 to Kess600 a day and they kept whatever they made over and above the rental and fuel costs.

Asset finance

When Andris Kaneps landed in Mombasa eight years ago, he had no idea a conversation he would have with a rider at bodaboda stage would provide the solution that would make half a million Kenyans owners of their own motorcycles.

After his trip where he learned about the renting model, he helped found Watu Credit using the same concept but this time the prospective customers would own the units after a fixed period of time. The model blew up and in less than a decade, five out of ten motorcycles in Kenya have been financed by Watu.

Today the model is widespread used by several asset finance companies including Momentum Credit, Mogo, Watu, Tugende Credit and Progressive Credit as well as e-mobility firms like Roam and MKopa, hoping to bring down the initial cost of investment into clean energy.

But the boda boda riders may have run out of runway as the market saturates and customer numbers decline. The business revenues have declined and many riders are unable to meet loan payments and up losing their units to auctioneers. The saturation began in the wake of Covid-19 economic hardships when jobless Kenyans began joining the ranks of boda boda given its low level of barriers to entry. As Kenyans rendered jobless sought livelihoods in the booming Boda Boda business the number of imported units exploded.

Boda boda imports rose exponentially to a peak of 129,121 in the third quarter of 2022, but then came the saturation and eventual correction.

The number of motorcycles units imported into Kenya fell 90 percent to 12,939 in the third quarter of the 2023.

The biggest cause of the sharp decline has been the shilling depreciation that has pushed units out of reach, however the market may also be correcting.

During this time, tech based logistic companies like Sendy and food delivery services like Kune were shutting down, plunging the sector into crisis.

Business was already deteriorating as more riders chased dwindling number of users who were also reducing on falling consumption. As Fuel prices began rising meeting payments became even harder leading to widespread repossessions.

It is against this backdrop with fewer units coming in and former owners losing their livelihoods that Kenya may be witnessing dialing up crime. The motored two wheelers which made it easy to move around Kenya’s underdeveloped rural infrastructure, has become the currency for violent robbery.

'since you can identify him, he just has to kill you'

There is scanty data on the number of motorcycles theft. Attempts to get the numbers from insurers came up empty as they have not been collating the data.

But anecdotal evidence shows cases are rampant and rising. In Busia the violence is leaving scores dead, hurting business and overwhelming the government’s ability to maintain law and order in rising vigilante justice.

When I visited my childhood home of Bulanda I was told of several cases of brutal deaths by bludgeoning with hammers, and a blow back of vigilante justice has seen several homesteads torched and accused people killed or banished.

Boda Boda theft is being driven by other riders, repair outlets, demand for motorboat to navigate Lake Victoria and an equally chaotic boda boda sector across the Ugandan border. The villagers told me boda boda rider deaths had become rampant because increasingly the theft syndicate are growing so first that every other rider is suspect.

“Theft has increased considerably and those stealing them are just among us. Recently we caught one of the thieves and it is someone we know so well, we spend time with them. In Mabale, Eric Chairman’s homestead was also burnt down and in Mundulusia another one was also killed over motorcycle theft,” Mugoya Feizal says.

The fact that the perpetrators are known to them has meant that the crimes are turning violent as they murder each other to eliminate witnesses.

“In fact it is usually someone you know, they call you and you know you go so innocently, you can’t say no, but when you go that is how you die

They will call you at night, say around 8 pm asking to be taken somewhere. Since you know him you go, but when you get him to their destination you find there are three other people, and since you can identify him, he just has to kill you. Your best chance is to abandon the bike and run for your life ,” Feizal says.

The rise in the number of brutal deaths has forced Busia county and the police to impose a security curfew urging boda boda riders not to operate past 10 pm in the evening.

Despite the curfew locals say the theft cases are still happening all the time, they are hearing cases at 6 am, during the day; it is becoming so prevalent that young men are refraining from taking up jobs as riders.

Mr Oscar Khalende the Chief Township location in Busia says they have been handling up to ten cases a month over the last couple of months some which have involved very gruesome murders.

He says since that brutal death the cases have calmed down a bit but the area is haunted by the rapid and brutal deaths.

“There is one very terrible case, those people did very terrible things to that man. He met some men in kanzus just next to Works stage and they told him that they were going to check for bricks in Muyala, when they went there, they turned on him and beat him badly, he he he he Mr Khalende exclaims.