Oral East AfricaAfricans solutions for African problems. The joint meeting of East and South African ministers in Tanzania has negotiated a cease-fire to end the conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) after weeks of fighting have left hundreds killed and thousands displaced.
In respect to the dead there will be immediate repatriation of the remains of the deceased, and reopening of Goma airport to move out the injured and fly in humanitarian assistance for the devastated populations.
East Africa Community (EAC) and South Africa Development Cooperation (SADC) joint meeting of ministers have worked out a deal that will see the Kinshasa government commit to dismantling the FDLR accused of the Rwandese genocide, in exchange for the withdrawal of President Paul Kagames support for M23. Rwanda has agreed to respect the territorial integrity of DRC.
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Virtual defeat
DR Congo President Félix Tshisekedi who attended the summit meeting via video link has also been asked to come to the table and iron out a settlement with M23 under the Nairobi process which he had abandoned.
The Kinshasa government which has inflamed the Congolese against Rwandese speakers within their own borders has also been told to stop the incitement that could rattle fragile communities straddling the borders of East and Central African countries.
The current DRC crisis stems from weaponization of anti-Rwandese ethnic sentiment in Congo during President Tshisekedi re-election where he allegedly turned to ethnic incitement, a dangerous strategy given the fragility of DRC and the history of civil war.
Genocide closure
Rwanda is said to back the March 23 Movement (M23) formed to fight after the Congolese government failed to implement a 2009 peace treaty, which has sought to defend Congolese Tutsi from other rebel groups and their own government’s aggression.
The East African country mobilized along the border its neighbor DRC, and is accused of having boots on the ground.
But Rwanda has defended its position stating that the fighting poses a security risk, especially since former Rwandese rebels who participated in the 90s genocide, the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda FDLR are active in the conflict.
The Rwandese government accused DRC president Tshisekedi of refusing to negotiate with M23 and walking out of the East Africa process for the intensification of the fighting.
Back to the south
The DRC crisis had drawn in multiple parties including the United Nations and regional neigbours to try and solve the crisis including SADC and EAC blocks.
President Felix Tshisekedi threw out EAC regional force accusing them of cohabiting with the M23 rather than forcing them to lay down arms.
He turned instead to the Launda process and drew in South Africa deployed the military in support for the DRC government under SADC Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (SAMIDRC). SAMIDRC in November last year extended its mandate but has been unable to bring stability in the DRC and faces partisan accusations.
South Africa suffered 9 casualties in the latest onslaught as a result. President Cyril Ramaphosa was the biggest backer of President Tshisekedi with his SAMIDRC but it seems he will now lose influence as negotiations head back to the Nairobi process.
Kagame’s triumph
The exit of some of these interests as well as global mining corporation-owned mercenary groups routed by Rwanda and the M23 that had been backing Kinshasa’a Wazalando and FDLR militia might provide a clear path to lasting peace.
If Kinshasa can survive the internal rifting that will come from the aftershock of this crisis, DR Congo and EAC have a golden opportunity to end this forever war in what should come out of the Nairobi process.
While it was Tanzania’s President Samia Suluhu who finally managed to bring the ego of the men to the table, Nairobi will steal some diplomatic show despite blundering to show President William Ruto represented American and French interest in the conflict.
For President Paul Kagame, the triumph of his campaign, and choice to back the peace process will not only elevate him in the region among his peers but also among his people, the Rwandese, the largest language group in East Africa just behind Somali speakers.
In the evolving world towards closer East Africa political formation, you can see who will easily make East Africa’s President if elections were held today.
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I have a feeling that this M23 victory is rather short lived.
Since DRC is not allowing secession of the east and given that the SADC group are nursing wounds of that shameful rout from Goma, we should expect some recompense.
I am inclined to see a robust response from a rejuvenated SADC. This time, with Angolan armour/air assets and a regrouped SANDF. They have good air force multipliers – drones and the deadly Grippens – Rwanda has no air force to write home about, save for some helicopter gunships and assorted drones.
So, this war could be entering another phase, one that will be more deadly than the ensuing one.
We might also see Rwanda and Burundi fight each other both in the DRC and across their common border. The unity of the EAC will be split down the middle, with its survival put to critical test. Terrible things are in the offing.